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Chokepoint

Bosporus Strait

The Bosporus Strait runs through Istanbul to connect the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and, via the Dardanelles, the Mediterranean. It is the sole maritime outlet for Black Sea grain and Russian oil exports, and passage through it is governed by the Montreux Convention.

Is the Bosporus Strait open right now?

Reduced: traffic through the Bosporus Strait was 58% of its year-earlier level in the seven published days to Oct 25, 2026 (IMF PortWatch). As of Nov 2, 2026, 4:43 AM UTC, IMF PortWatch counted 62 transits through the Bosporus Strait on Oct 25, 2026 (latest published day). The 7-day average is 53.7 a day, 58% of the 92.2-a-day average for Nov 2024–Nov 2025. The Yellow disruption score is a risk signal; it does not verify unrestricted passage or operational closure.

The score of 20 (Yellow) has this evidence basis. Configured geopolitical baseline: Montreux Convention restrictions; elevated due to Russia-Ukraine war and periodic Turkish traffic controls. Observed score inputs: 0 warnings; maximum AIS congestion severity Low. Context only (not score inputs): AIS event count (1 AIS disruption); IMF PortWatch latest daily count (62 on Oct 25, 2026).

Current status

Bosporus Strait disruption pulse

Published pulse

Daily transit counts are official IMF PortWatch figures, published about four days after the day they cover. A missing count does not mean zero traffic.

Disruption score20Yellow
Navigational warnings0 warnings
AIS disruptions1 AIS disruption
AIS congestionLow
Latest daily transits (IMF PortWatch)62Oct 25, 2026
7-day average vs year-earlier53.7 a day · 58% of 92.2
Week-over-week movement+15.3% vs prior week

Montreux Convention restrictions; elevated due to Russia-Ukraine war and periodic Turkish traffic controls

Open Bosporus Strait on the live map →
ConnectsBlack Sea ↔ Sea of Marmara
Position41.1°N, 29°E
Energy shock modelNo

Why can the Montreux Convention close the Bosporus to more than grain?

Bosporus Strait sits at 41.1°N, 29°E and connects Black Sea ↔ Sea of Marmara. The reference maps 1 modelled trade-route corridor onto this waypoint.

The Bosporus is a city strait: a winding, current-scoured channel through Istanbul with no practical second mouth. Together with the Dardanelles it is the Turkish Straits. SUZU Monitor’s registry id is bosphorus; the EIA 2023 series labels the same baseline Turkish Straits at 2.9 million barrels a day. Legal control is the Montreux Convention, which is a peacetime and wartime passage regime, not a lock schedule.

Only one modelled corridor uses this waypoint: Russia → Mediterranean (Oil) at 140M+ tonnes/year from Novorossiysk to Piraeus. Grain and other Black Sea bulk are operationally in the same geographic cork even when they are not a separate row in TRADE_ROUTES. There is no energy shock model on this waterway; the oil baseline exists, but the four-waterway shock set is Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, and Bab el-Mandeb.

The EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints series records 2.9 million barrels a day on the Turkish Straits row. SUZU Monitor does not enable the energy shock model on this waterway.

There is no second sea exit from the Black Sea. Overland and pipeline routes can move some oil and grain, but they do not recreate a Mediterranean tanker arrival. A Montreux restriction or a blocked channel therefore isolates Black Sea ports rather than adding days the way a Suez diversion does.

Major trade routes through Bosporus Strait

Modelled trade-route corridors through Bosporus Strait. Volumes are SUZU Monitor corridor figures as of .
RouteCategoryModelled volumeAs of
Russia → Mediterranean (Oil)Energy140M+ tonnes/year

How to read this page

The crawlable Dataset is the registry-and-route snapshot under the chokepoint disruption methodology. Live pulse tiles are a separately frozen observation and are not copied into this Dataset. Modelled corridor volumes are dated .

Template revision 2026-10-18. Reference observation . This note is a methodology-revision stamp, not a live AIS clock. Published revisions that affect this page are in the corrections log.

Questions about Bosporus Strait

Is the Bosporus the same as the EIA “Turkish Straits” row?

SUZU Monitor maps its bosphorus registry id to the EIA Turkish Straits baseline of 2.9 million barrels a day (2023). That EIA label covers the Bosporus–Dardanelles pair, not Istanbul alone.

Does SUZU Monitor model an energy shock for the Bosporus?

No. Shock modelling is limited to four waterways. The Bosporus still has a committed EIA oil baseline and a modelled Russia → Mediterranean oil corridor.

Which modelled trade routes use Bosporus Strait?

Bosporus Strait is a waypoint on Russia → Mediterranean (Oil) (140M+ tonnes/year). Those corridor volumes are SUZU Monitor modelled figures dated March 14, 2026 in the SUZU Monitor trade-route reference.

Related country profiles

Crisis context

Related

Download: reference.json. Source: SUZU Monitor chokepoint registry and trade-route reference. Captured April 9, 2026. Methodology: how chokepoint disruption is scored.

How SUZU Monitor compares: Chokepoint Monitoring Tools.