Why can drought close the Panama Canal when both oceans are open?
Panama Canal sits at 9.1°N, 79.7°W and connects Atlantic ↔ Pacific. The reference maps 3 modelled trade-route corridors onto this waypoint.
Panama is a lock canal, not a sea-level cut. Each lockage spends Gatún Lake freshwater. In a dry season the authority rationing is daily slots and draft, not a wartime closure. That is a different failure mode from Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb: the oceans stay open while the engineered shortcut shrinks. SUZU Monitor does not attach the energy shock model here; the committed EIA 2023 Panama baseline is 0.9 million barrels a day, an order of magnitude below Hormuz.
Only two modelled corridors use this waypoint: China → US East Coast (Panama) at 8M+ TEU/year, and Panama Transit at 14K+ transits/year between Colon and Balboa. The competing Asia–US East Coast product is China → US East Coast (Suez), waypointed on the Suez page rather than in this canal’s table. When Panama slots tighten, that Suez (or Cape) option is the documented substitute, not a second Central American canal.
The EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints series records 0.9 million barrels a day on the Panama Canal row. SUZU Monitor does not enable the energy shock model on this waterway.
Ships that miss a Panama slot go around Cape Horn, use the US intermodal landbridge, or take the Suez/Cape eastbound product waypointed on the Suez page, not in this canal’s two-row table. None of those recreate the freshwater lock system. Drought rationing therefore shows up first as fewer daily transits and shallower permitted draft, which is why the live pulse on this page can publish a calm disruption score while still withholding an unsupplied AIS day-count.
Major trade routes through Panama Canal
| Route | Category | Modelled volume | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| China → US East Coast (Panama) | Container | 8M+ TEU/year | |
| Panama Transit | Container | 14K+ transits/year | |
| US Gulf Coast → Northeast Asia (Panama) | Energy | LPG, LNG and chemicals |
How to read this page
The crawlable Dataset is the registry-and-route snapshot under the chokepoint disruption methodology. Live pulse tiles are a separately frozen observation and are not copied into this Dataset. Modelled corridor volumes are dated .
Template revision 2026-10-18. Reference observation . This note is a methodology-revision stamp, not a live AIS clock. Published revisions that affect this page are in the corrections log.
Questions about Panama Canal
Is Panama an energy chokepoint like Hormuz?
No. SUZU Monitor does not enable the energy shock model on Panama. The EIA 2023 oil-transit baseline is 0.9 million barrels a day, versus 21.0 at Hormuz. Panama’s distinctive risk is lock freshwater, not a missing sea exit.
Which modelled routes use the Panama Canal?
China → US East Coast (Panama) and the local Panama Transit corridor. The Suez-routed China → US East Coast product is the documented alternative; it is waypointed on the Suez page, not in this canal’s two-row table.
Which modelled trade routes use Panama Canal?
Panama Canal is a waypoint on China → US East Coast (Panama) (8M+ TEU/year); Panama Transit (14K+ transits/year); US Gulf Coast → Northeast Asia (Panama) (LPG, LNG and chemicals). Those corridor volumes are SUZU Monitor modelled figures dated March 14, 2026 in the SUZU Monitor trade-route reference.