Guatemala resilience analysis
Guatemala ranks #106 of 169 countries with an overall resilience score of 49.7 out of 100. Structural readiness is the weakest pillar at 57.7, with live shock exposure next at 66.3. Recovery capacity is strongest at 67, while Health, food and water is the lowest of the six underlying domains at 45. Across the recorded 30-day window, the index is stable at -0.2 points. Dimension coverage is 82%, and the page labels confidence as standard.
Pillar profile
- Structural readiness: 57.7; coverage 90%; domains Economic capacity, Social and governance.
- Live shock exposure: 66.3; coverage 88%; domains Infrastructure, Energy security, Health, food and water.
- Recovery capacity: 67; coverage 63%; domains Recovery capacity.
Six-domain profile
- Health, food and water: 45; weight 13%; low Health and public services 45; high Food and water security 45.
- Social and governance: 54.5; weight 19%; low Education capacity 19; high Border security 79.
- Economic capacity: 61.3; weight 17%; low Macro-fiscal position 45; high Trade policy resilience 80.
- Recovery capacity: 67; weight 25%; low State continuity 42; high External-debt coverage 100.
- Infrastructure: 75.6; weight 15%; low Logistics and supply chains 32; high Cyber and digital capacity 100.
- Energy security: 84; weight 11%; Energy system resilience 84.
Dimension evidence, observed scores weakest first
| Dimension | Domain | Score | Coverage | Evidence state |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education capacity | Social and governance | 19 | 100% | Fresh |
| Logistics and supply chains | Infrastructure | 32 | 50% | Fresh |
| Governance and institutions | Social and governance | 38 | 100% | Fresh |
| State continuity | Recovery capacity | 42 | 100% | Stale |
| Food and water security | Health, food and water | 45 | 100% | Fresh |
| Health and public services | Health, food and water | 45 | 100% | Fresh |
| Macro-fiscal position | Economic capacity | 45 | 80% | Fresh |
| Fiscal space | Recovery capacity | 52 | 100% | Fresh |
| Social cohesion | Social and governance | 55 | 92% | Stale |
| Currency and external balance | Economic capacity | 60 | 85% | Fresh |
| Import concentration | Recovery capacity | 70 | 100% | Fresh |
| Financial-system exposure | Economic capacity | 71 | 100% | Fresh |
| Information environment | Social and governance | 71 | 55% | Fresh |
| Core infrastructure | Infrastructure | 72 | 70% | Fresh |
| Liquid-reserve adequacy | Recovery capacity | 75 | 100% | Fresh |
| Border security | Social and governance | 79 | 100% | Stale |
| Trade policy resilience | Economic capacity | 80 | 100% | Fresh |
| Energy system resilience | Energy security | 84 | 90% | Fresh |
| Cyber and digital capacity | Infrastructure | 100 | 100% | Fresh |
| External-debt coverage | Recovery capacity | 100 | 100% | Fresh |
| Fuel-stock buffer | Recovery capacity | — | 0% | Unavailable |
| Reserve adequacy | Recovery capacity | — | 0% | Unavailable |
| Sovereign fiscal buffer | Recovery capacity | — | 0% | Not applicable |
Comparison set
Nearest ranked peers: Morocco (#105, 50.3), Ghana (#107, 49.6), Lesotho (#104, 50.4), Honduras (#108, 49.4). Comparisons in Latin America and the Caribbean: Honduras (#108, 49.4), Colombia (#100, 50.6), Argentina (#99, 50.7), Cuba, Bahamas (#113, 48.3). Similar scores do not mean equal conditions.
Tracked crisis context
Guatemala has no dedicated crisis tracker; the 18 trackers cover selected crises. That is a coverage limit, not a statement about risk.
Reading limits
Scores come from the November 1, 2026 snapshot. Top domain: Energy security, 84. Weak pillars pull the overall score down; read each score alongside its coverage and imputation.
Questions about Guatemala
What is Guatemala's resilience score?
Guatemala scores 49.7 out of 100 in the November 1, 2026 structural snapshot and sits #106 of 169 ranked countries. This is a comparative index, not a crisis probability.
Which resilience pillars are weakest for Guatemala?
Structural readiness is lowest at 57.7, followed by Live shock exposure at 66.3. Their evidence coverage is 90% and 88%.
Is Guatemala's resilience score rising or falling?
The 30-day reading is stable, with a change of -0.2 points. It is structural and separate from the live instability monitor.