Myanmar civil war tracker

What is happening in Myanmar?

Myanmar civil war: the military government, resistance forces and ethnic armies, a sourced timeline, what to watch, and monthly conflict events and fatalities.

This tracker reports the latest available monthly humanitarian conflict summary for Myanmar, aggregated from subnational records. It is a country-level pulse, not a comprehensive incident ledger, a territorial control map, or a forecast.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published November 2, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: SUZU Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, November 2, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

The counts on this page are a country-level pulse, not an incident ledger or a territorial control map. Myanmar's military detained Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint on 1 February 2021 and declared a year-long state of emergency, a move UN Secretary-General António Guterres called a serious blow to democratic reforms. The crackdown that followed pushed protesters to take up arms as People's Defence Forces, nominally under the National Unity Government of ousted lawmakers, often trained by ethnic armed groups fighting the state since independence in 1948. Sources: UN News, Al Jazeera.

Offensives in 2023 and 2024 stripped the military of dozens of towns, but the balance has shifted. ISP-Myanmar, cited by Al Jazeera, counted 22 of 101 lost towns retaken by August 2026, helped by conscription, air power and Chinese pressure on border ethnic armies. The UN human rights office reported more than 125,000 forced conscripts deployed, credible-source counts of at least 8,075 civilians killed by the military from the coup to 31 May 2026, and air strikes as the main cause of civilian deaths. Sources: Al Jazeera, OHCHR.

Three rounds of voting between 28 December 2025 and 25 January 2026 took place with Aung San Suu Kyi detained, her party dissolved and polls called off in one in five townships; Min Aung Hlaing resigned as armed forces chief and was sworn in as president on 10 April 2026. OCHA estimated in July 2026 that nearly 3.8 million people were displaced; UNHCR counted 4,051,000 internally displaced as of 12 October 2026. Since April he has visited five ASEAN states while fighting continues in Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Karen and Sagaing. Sources: France 24 (1, 2), OCHA, UNHCR, Al Jazeera.

Key actors

• Myanmar military and President Min Aung Hlaing's government — Coup leader sworn in as president on 10 April 2026; over two-thirds of his 30 ministers are serving or retired officers. (France 24)
• National Unity Government (NUG) and People's Defence Forces (PDF) — Shadow government of ousted lawmakers nominally commanding PDF militias, which fight in central Myanmar with seized, black-market and homemade weapons. (Al Jazeera)
• Arakan Army (AA) — Controls nearly all of Rakhine State except a few military-held urban centres, including Kyauktaw, struck on 28 September 2026. (France 24)
• Kachin Independence Army (KIA) — Ethnic army of up to 30,000 troops, partly funded by rare-earth mining, operating jointly with post-coup resistance forces. (Al Jazeera)
• MNDAA and TNLA — Northern Shan State ethnic armies that Chinese pressure pulled out of the fight, freeing the military to redeploy troops. (Al Jazeera)
• China — Brokered ceasefires between the military and border ethnic armies and pressed the United Wa State Army to stop arming the opposition. (Al Jazeera)

Timeline

1. February 1, 2021 — The military detained Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint and declared a one-year state of emergency. (UN News)
2. October 27, 2023 — The TNLA, Arakan Army and MNDAA jointly attacked military positions across northern Shan State, closing roads to China. (France 24)
3. August 2024 — The MNDAA ousted the military from Lashio and its northeastern command, called its worst strategic loss since the coup. (France 24)
4. March 28, 2025 — Earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 6.9 struck central Myanmar; OCHA later reported more than 3,800 deaths as air attacks persisted. (OCHA)
5. April 2025 — China's foreign ministry said the MNDAA would hand Lashio back without a fight under a Chinese-monitored ceasefire. (France 24)
6. January 25, 2026 — The election's final round ended; a USDP official claimed a majority, with voting cancelled in one in five townships. (France 24)
7. April 10, 2026 — Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as president for a five-year term after resigning as armed forces chief. (France 24)
8. September 28, 2026 — A military air strike hit Kyauktaw's riverside market in Rakhine; an aid worker and the Arakan Army reported 50 dead. (France 24)
9. October 2026 — Min Aung Hlaing got an honour-guard welcome in Kuala Lumpur, where Anwar Ibrahim pledged to help reintegrate Myanmar into ASEAN. (Al Jazeera)

What to watch

• Air strike tempo. OHCHR says air strikes are the main cause of civilian deaths; a sustained fall would be the first sign the peace-talk offer is more than rhetoric. Tracked in the UCDP Conflict Events panel on the live dashboard.
• Displacement totals. OCHA put displacement near 3.8 million in July 2026 and UNHCR at 4.05 million in October; further growth in the northwest signals widening offensives. Tracked in the UNHCR Displacement panel on the live dashboard.
• Towns changing hands. ISP-Myanmar counted 22 of 101 lost towns retaken by August 2026; further recaptures in Kachin or Rakhine, or resistance counter-offensives, show who holds momentum. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• Village burnings. OHCHR recorded 597 arson attacks in the year to May 2026, mostly in Sagaing and Mandalay; clustered fire detections near villages can flag burnings before reports emerge. Tracked in the Fires map layer on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

Myanmar has a Country Instability Index reading of 60 (Elevated). Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Myanmar (MM). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. SUZU Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Questions about the Myanmar civil war

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: SUZU Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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