Sahel insurgency tracker

What is happening in the Sahel?

Sahel insurgency in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger: JNIM and Islamic State, key actors, a sourced timeline, what to watch, and monthly conflict data.

This tracker covers the central Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, whose insurgencies cross shared borders. Totals are aggregated from subnational humanitarian records and are not a territorial control map, a displacement estimate, or a forecast.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published November 2, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: SUZU Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, November 2, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

The central Sahel insurgency grew out of the 2012 rebellion in northern Mali and spread to Niger and Burkina Faso by 2015. JNIM, al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, formed in 2017 from AQIM's Saharan branch and the Malian groups Ansar Dine, Al-Murabitun and Katiba Macina; its rival, Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), is based in Mali's Ménaka region. A UN experts' report submitted to the Security Council in August 2026 put JNIM at 7,000 to 8,000 fighters and the Islamic State group at about 2,000. Coups in Mali (2020, 2021), Burkina Faso (2022) and Niger (July 2023) installed juntas that expelled French forces and turned to Russia. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Africanews, UN News.

The three juntas signed the Liptako-Gourma charter on 16 September 2023, creating the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a mutual-defence pact; their withdrawal from ECOWAS took effect on 29 January 2025. In Mali, Russia's Wagner group was replaced in June 2025 by Africa Corps, a force under the Russian Defence Ministry. Burkina Faso's government under Captain Ibrahim Traoré dissolved all political parties in January 2026. In Niger, General Abdourahamane Tchiani survived a mutiny on 29 August 2026 in which, Al Jazeera reported, about 200 Africa Corps soldiers helped loyalists retake Air Base 101; at least 27 people were killed. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

JNIM declared a blockade on fuel imports into Mali in September 2025, attacking tankers from Senegal and Ivory Coast and forcing a two-week nationwide school closure in October. On 25 April 2026 JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) attacked sites across Mali, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara in Kati and seizing Kidal; the army, backed by Africa Corps, re-entered Kidal on 6 October 2026. UNHCR counted about 2.1 million forcibly displaced people in Burkina Faso at end-2025, WFP reported over 415,000 internally displaced in Mali in February 2026, and UNFPA put Niger's internally displaced above 548,000. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3), ReliefWeb (1, 2, 3).

Key actors

• Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) — Al-Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, led by Iyad Ag Ghali, which blockaded Bamako's fuel supply from 2025 and claimed the April 2026 capture of Kidal jointly with the FLA. (Al Jazeera)
• Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) — Islamic State's Sahel branch, based in Ménaka and estimated at about 2,000 fighters by UN experts, which claimed over 400 JNIM dead in Burkina Faso's Oudalan in October 2026. (Africanews)
• Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) — Tuareg separatist movement that seized Kidal with JNIM in April 2026 and announced a strategic and controlled withdrawal from the city on 6 October 2026, calling it temporary. (Al Jazeera)
• Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — The military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, bound since 16 September 2023 by the Liptako-Gourma charter to treat an attack on one as aggression against all. (Al Jazeera)
• Africa Corps — Russian Defence Ministry force that replaced Wagner in Mali in June 2025 and whose air and ground campaign the FLA blamed for its October 2026 withdrawal from Kidal. (Al Jazeera)
• Niger's military government (Abdourahamane Tchiani) — Niger's ruler since the 2023 coup, who expelled French and US troops and relied on Africa Corps units to retake Niamey's Air Base 101 from mutineers in August 2026. (Al Jazeera)

Timeline

1. July 26, 2023 — Niger's presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum; its commander Abdourahamane Tchiani declared himself head of a transitional government two days later. (Al Jazeera)
2. September 16, 2023 — Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the Liptako-Gourma charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States, pledging military assistance to any member attacked. (Al Jazeera)
3. August 24, 2024 — Around 200 people were killed in Barsalogho, Burkina Faso, as residents dug defensive trenches; the UN Secretary-General condemned the attack, attributed in news reports to JNIM. (UN News)
4. January 29, 2025 — ECOWAS announced the formal withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, saying it would keep its doors open and asking members to preserve free movement. (Al Jazeera)
5. September 2025 — JNIM declared a blockade on fuel imported into Mali and began attacking tankers from Senegal and Ivory Coast; by late October schools nationwide closed for two weeks. (Al Jazeera)
6. April 25, 2026 — JNIM and the FLA launched simultaneous attacks across Mali, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara at his Kati home, with fighting in Bamako, Gao, Sevare and Kidal. (Al Jazeera)
7. August 29, 2026 — Soldiers styling themselves the Armed Forces for the Restoration of the Homeland attacked Niamey's Air Base 101, the presidential palace and the broadcaster; loyalists and Africa Corps put down the mutiny. (Al Jazeera)
8. October 6, 2026 — Mali's army, backed by Africa Corps, entered Kidal after the FLA announced a strategic and controlled withdrawal citing Russian air strikes; the FLA said troops entered without a fight. (Al Jazeera)
9. October 12, 2026 — ISSP claimed to have killed more than 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina Faso's Oudalan province; the toll was unconfirmed, and ACLED said it would be the groups' deadliest battle if verified. (Africanews)

What to watch

• Bamako fuel corridors. JNIM's attacks on tankers from Senegal and Ivory Coast forced school closures in 2025 and still require escorted convoys; renewed shortages in the capital would show the siege tactic resuming. Tracked in the Global Fuel Shortage Registry panel on the live dashboard.
• JNIM–ISSP fighting in Liptako-Gourma. ISSP's October 2026 claim of 400 JNIM dead in Oudalan would, if confirmed, be the deadliest inter-jihadist battle recorded; sustained clashes decide which group controls the tri-border zone. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• Kidal and northern Mali control. The FLA called its October 2026 withdrawal temporary; a renewed FLA–JNIM move on Kidal or Gao would test whether Africa Corps air power can hold the north for Bamako. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• Niamey garrison security. Niger's airport complex was attacked by ISSP in January and JNIM in June 2026, then by mutineers in August; further incidents there show threats reaching the junta's core. Tracked in the Country Instability panel on the live dashboard.
• Displacement across the three states. Burkina Faso had about 2.1 million forcibly displaced at end-2025 and Niger's internally displaced rose 18 percent in early 2026, per UNFPA; new spikes would mark spreading rural insecurity. Tracked in the UNHCR Displacement panel on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

None of the 3 covered countries in this tracker is in the Country Instability Index's monitored set, so only structural resilience readings are shown. Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Burkina Faso (BF), Mali (ML), Niger (NE). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. SUZU Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Questions about the Sahel insurgency

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: SUZU Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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