DR Congo conflict tracker

What is happening in eastern Congo?

Democratic Republic of the Congo conflict: M23 and fighting in the eastern Kivus, key actors, a sourced timeline, what to watch, and monthly conflict data.

This tracker reports the latest available monthly humanitarian conflict summary for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aggregated from subnational records across the whole country rather than the eastern provinces alone.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published November 2, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: SUZU Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, November 2, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

Fighting is concentrated in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri, but the monthly counts on this page are national and include incidents elsewhere in the country. M23 emerged as a major armed movement in 2012 and resurfaced in 2022 with a new offensive. Kinshasa, the United States and UN experts accuse Rwanda of backing the group; Kigali denies this and accuses Kinshasa of arming the FDLR, rooted in forces that fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2).

In late January 2025 M23 fighters backed by Rwandan troops took Goma's airport and most of the city; an AFP hospital tally counted more than 100 dead, and a UN expert report cited by France 24 put up to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers alongside the group. In mid-February M23 and Rwandan forces entered Bukavu, the South Kivu capital. OCHA reported in May 2026 that more than 5.7 million people were internally displaced nationwide and the 2026 response plan was 30.2 per cent funded at end-March. Sources: France 24 (1, 2), OCHA.

Two diplomatic tracks run in parallel. The DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement in Washington on 27 June 2025, reaffirmed by the Washington Accords that December, committing Kinshasa to neutralise the FDLR and Rwanda to disengage its forces. Under Qatari mediation, Kinshasa and AFC/M23 signed a declaration of principles in July 2025 and the Doha Framework on 15 November 2025. M23 captured Uvira days after the December signing, and on 12 October 2026 former president Joseph Kabila launched a coalition replacing the AFC/M23 alliance. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3), France 24, US State Department.

Key actors

• Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) — National army; said on 19 January 2026 it had retaken Uvira after AFC/M23 withdrew, with pro-Kinshasa Wazalendo militias entering first. (France 24)
• AFC/M23 (Congo River Alliance / March 23 Movement) — Rebel coalition that captured Goma and Bukavu in 2025 and signed the Doha Framework with Kinshasa on 15 November 2025. (Al Jazeera)
• Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) — Sanctioned by the United States on 2 March 2026, with four senior officers, for what Washington called direct operational support to M23. (US State Department)
• Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) — Rooted in forces that fled Rwanda after the 1994 genocide; its neutralisation is Kinshasa's core obligation under the Washington agreement. (Al Jazeera)
• Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) — Islamic State-affiliated group from Uganda, under UN sanctions since 2014; killed at least 49 civilians at a Komanda church vigil in July 2025. (UN News)
• Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) — Coalition including M23, launched in Goma on 12 October 2026 by former president Joseph Kabila, with Corneille Nangaa among his deputies. (Al Jazeera)

Timeline

1. January 28, 2025 — M23 fighters backed by Rwandan troops took Goma's airport and most of the city; an AFP hospital tally counted over 100 dead. (France 24)
2. February 16, 2025 — M23 and Rwandan forces marched largely unchecked into Bukavu, the South Kivu capital, security and humanitarian sources said. (France 24)
3. June 27, 2025 — The DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement in Washington covering FDLR neutralisation and Rwandan force disengagement. (Al Jazeera)
4. July 27, 2025 — ADF fighters killed at least 49 civilians, including nine children, mostly worshippers at a church vigil in Komanda, Ituri. (UN News)
5. November 15, 2025 — Kinshasa and AFC/M23 signed the Doha Framework, with eight protocols including ceasefire monitoring and prisoner exchange. (Al Jazeera)
6. December 4, 2025 — Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame signed the Washington Accords at the White House; days later M23 captured Uvira. (US State Department)
7. January 19, 2026 — The Congolese army said it had retaken Uvira after AFC/M23 withdrew its remaining forces from the city. (France 24)
8. August 24, 2026 — The first ceasefire verification mission, with government and AFC/M23 representatives, deployed by UN helicopter to Minembwe, South Kivu. (France 24)
9. October 12, 2026 — Joseph Kabila launched the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation in Goma, with Corneille Nangaa among his deputies. (Al Jazeera)

What to watch

• Clashes around Minembwe, Uvira and Kalehe. The Doha verification mission reached Minembwe in August 2026; recorded clashes in these South Kivu areas show whether the ceasefire holds. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• New displacement in North and South Kivu. OCHA counts more than 5.7 million displaced nationally; a rise concentrated in the Kivus would signal renewed M23-FARDC fighting rather than ADF violence. Tracked in the UNHCR Displacement panel on the live dashboard.
• ADF attacks in Ituri and North Kivu. ADF massacres such as Komanda in July 2025 enter the national count even when the M23 front is quiet; spikes there are not Doha breakdowns. Tracked in the UCDP Conflict Events panel on the live dashboard.
• FRN military moves after Kabila's launch. The FRN says it inherits the AFC's Doha commitments; new offensives from Goma or Bukavu would show whether it changes the war or only its leadership. Tracked in the Escalation Monitor panel on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

Democratic Republic of the Congo is not in the Country Instability Index's monitored set, so only its structural resilience reading is shown. Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Democratic Republic of the Congo (CD). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. SUZU Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Questions about the DR Congo conflict

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: SUZU Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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