Nigeria security crisis tracker

What is happening in Nigeria?

Nigeria security crisis: Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandit kidnappings and Middle Belt violence, actors, a sourced timeline, what to watch, and monthly conflict data.

This tracker reports the latest available monthly humanitarian conflict summary for Nigeria, aggregated from subnational records. It combines the north-eastern insurgency, banditry and communal violence into one national total and does not separate them.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published November 2, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: SUZU Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, November 2, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

Boko Haram's insurgency in the northeast dates from July 2009, when founder Mohammed Yusuf died in police custody in Maiduguri and successor Abubakar Shekau launched a campaign of attacks. The group split in 2016, and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) faction became dominant after Shekau's death in 2021. OCHA describes a 16-year conflict in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe; its $516 million appeal for 2026 targets 2.5 million people, and in March 2026 alone insecurity killed or injured 700 people in Borno and Yobe. ISWAP still attacks remote bases, including the 101 Special Forces Battalion at Kukawa on 6 October 2026. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2), ReliefWeb (1, 2), La Nación.

In the northwest, armed gangs known as bandits raid villages and kidnap for ransom; Al Jazeera reports mass kidnappings have become common across northern Nigeria, with girls taken from a government boarding school in Kebbi State on 17 November 2025 and more than 300 students and staff seized from a Catholic school in Niger State days later. Lakurawa, a group the army first acknowledged in November 2024, operates from Sokoto and Kebbi. In the north-central Middle Belt, where mostly Fulani herders and farmers clash over land and water, an overnight attack on Yelwata, Benue State, in June 2025 killed at least 100 people, Amnesty International said; a state official confirmed 45. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3).

On 3 February 2026 gunmen killed at least 162 civilians in Woro, Kwara State, according to the African Union Commission; no group claimed the attack, and President Bola Tinubu blamed Boko Haram and deployed an army battalion. US involvement grew after Christmas Day 2025 strikes in Sokoto State, which Nigeria said were coordinated: 100 US soldiers arrived in February 2026 to train local forces, and in May a joint operation killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described by Washington as ISIL's global second-in-command, in the Lake Chad Basin. This tracker combines the north-eastern insurgency, north-western banditry and Middle Belt communal violence into one national total. Sources: African Union, Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3).

Key actors

• Boko Haram (JAS) — Group founded in 2002 whose insurgency had killed nearly 30,000 people and displaced more than two million by 2019, according to tracker figures cited by Al Jazeera. (Al Jazeera)
• Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) — Boko Haram splinter that frequently attacks remote, lightly fortified bases in the northeast to seize weapons, most recently at Kukawa in Borno on 6 October 2026. (La Nación)
• Bandit gangs of the northwest — Armed criminal groups in Zamfara and neighbouring states that arrive on motorcycles, burn homes and abduct residents; at least 50 were killed in Tungan Dutse, Zamfara, in February 2026. (Al Jazeera)
• Lakurawa — Group first acknowledged by the army in November 2024, operating from Sokoto and Kebbi along the Niger border; its fighters are believed to come from Mali and levy cattle taxes. (Al Jazeera)
• Nigerian armed forces — Federal forces running air and ground operations in the northeast; an April 2026 air strike near Jilli market on the Yobe–Borno border killed more than 100, according to Amnesty International. (Al Jazeera)
• United States forces — Partner that struck Sokoto State on 25 December 2025, has since deployed hundreds of troops in what Nigeria calls a noncombat role, and joined the May 2026 al-Minuki operation. (Al Jazeera)

Timeline

1. July 2009 — Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf was killed in police custody in Maiduguri; successor Abubakar Shekau vowed revenge and launched the insurgency. (Al Jazeera)
2. April 2014 — Boko Haram kidnapped 276 schoolgirls from a boarding school in Chibok, Borno State, drawing global attention to the insurgency. (Al Jazeera)
3. June 13, 2025 — Gunmen attacked Yelwata in Benue State overnight; Amnesty International said at least 100 people were killed, while a state official confirmed 45 deaths. (Al Jazeera)
4. November 17, 2025 — Armed men stormed a government girls' boarding school in Kebbi State shortly after a military detachment left and abducted students; 24 girls were released on 25 November. (Al Jazeera)
5. December 25, 2025 — US forces struck what Washington called ISIS positions in northwest Nigeria, with Jabo in Sokoto State confirmed hit; Nigeria's foreign minister said the strikes were coordinated. (Al Jazeera)
6. February 3, 2026 — Gunmen attacked the village of Woro in Kwara State, killing at least 162 civilians, the African Union Commission said in condemning the attack. (African Union)
7. May 16, 2026 — The US and Nigerian presidents announced a joint operation had killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as ISIL's global second-in-command, at a compound in the Lake Chad Basin. (Al Jazeera)
8. August 5, 2026 — The presidency announced the rescue of 308 kidnap victims from Kainji Lake National Park in Niger State, including people abducted in the February Woro attack. (Al Jazeera)
9. October 6, 2026 — ISWAP fighters attacked the 101 Special Forces Battalion at Kukawa, Borno, from four directions; the army said over 25 militants died and a senior officer told AP 10 soldiers were killed. (La Nación)

What to watch

• Attacks on Lake Chad military bases. ISWAP raids remote northeastern bases to seize weapons, as at Kukawa on 6 October 2026; a cluster of such assaults would signal the group rebuilding capacity around Lake Chad. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• Mass abductions in the northwest and north-central. School and village kidnappings for ransom, such as the Kebbi school raid of November 2025, recur where state presence is thin; a run of mass abductions shows bandit groups extending their reach. Tracked in the UCDP Conflict Events panel on the live dashboard.
• Lean-season hunger in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. OCHA projected 5.8 million people in Crisis or worse for June–September 2026, including 15,000 in Catastrophe in Borno, with food aid 1.3 percent funded in March; worsening access deepens famine-like pockets. Tracked in the Country Instability panel on the live dashboard.
• US military footprint. After the December 2025 strikes and the May 2026 al-Minuki operation, further US strikes or troop announcements would mark escalation of a partnership Nigeria describes as noncombat support. Tracked in the Military Activity map layer on the live dashboard.
• Middle Belt mass-casualty raids. Yelwata (June 2025) and Woro (February 2026) followed warnings residents say went unheeded; new raids in Benue or Kwara and resulting changes to foreign travel advisories would reflect spreading risk. Tracked in the Security Advisories panel on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

Nigeria is not in the Country Instability Index's monitored set, so only its structural resilience reading is shown. Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Nigeria (NG). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. SUZU Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Questions about the Nigeria security crisis

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: SUZU Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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