Horn of Africa conflict tracker

What is happening in the Horn of Africa?

Horn of Africa conflicts in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Eritrea: Tigray, al-Shabaab, key actors, a sourced timeline, what to watch and monthly data.

This tracker keeps a fixed four-country boundary across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan report through subnational humanitarian records while Eritrea reports nationally, so a country showing zero recorded events reflects the maintained dataset rather than an absence of risk.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published November 2, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: SUZU Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, November 2, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

Ethiopia's 2020–22 Tigray war ended with the AU-mediated Pretoria agreement of 2 November 2022, which Eritrea, a combatant on the federal side, did not join. Army–Fano fighting began in Amhara in July 2023. On 23 September 2026 a seven-group alliance including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked federal forces in Tigray, Amhara and Afar; federal troops and the allied Tigray Peace Force entered Mekelle on 3 October after the TPLF withdrew. Ethiopia closed its Asmara embassy on 1 October, Eritrea severed ties, and Addis Ababa told the Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 km into Tigray, which Asmara denies. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), Internazionale.

Somalia's government has fought al-Shabaab since 2007; the group holds territory in parts of southern and central Somalia and in April 2025 claimed Adan Yabaal, an army logistics hub 220 km north of Mogadishu. A new African Union mission replaced a larger force at the start of 2025 with uncertain funding, while the US carried out at least 111 air strikes in Somalia in 2025, per the New America Foundation. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term expired on 15 May 2026 and a constitutional amendment extended it a year; government and opposition-aligned forces fought in Mogadishu on 3–4 June, and on 15 October the electoral commission set elections for April and May 2027. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

In South Sudan, the 2018 peace deal between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar unravelled after a March 2025 White Army attack on an army base at Nasir, Upper Nile, which the government says killed more than 250 soldiers on Machar's orders; Machar was placed under house arrest and his treason trial opened on 22 September 2025. UNMISS told the Security Council in August 2026 that violence displaced more than 420,000 people in the first half of the year, mainly in Jonglei, with elections scheduled for December. Eritrea, reported nationally here, is drawn in through Tigray: witnesses told Reuters they saw Eritrean soldiers in Adigrat on 7 October 2026. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2), UNMISS.

Key actors

• Ethiopian federal government and army — Abiy Ahmed's federal forces, which with the allied Tigray Peace Force retook Mekelle, Adwa, Adigrat and Aksum in October 2026 and accuse Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels. (Al Jazeera)
• Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) — Tigray's dominant party and armed movement, which withdrew from Mekelle in early October 2026; its commander Fisseha Kidanu has told fighters to keep resisting. (Al Jazeera)
• Eritrea — Neighbour that fought alongside Ethiopia in 2020–22, severed diplomatic ties on 1 October 2026 and denies backing the alliance; it says it fears Ethiopia will seize Assab. (Internazionale)
• Al-Shabaab — Al-Qaeda affiliate fighting Somalia's government since 2007 that controls large areas of south-central Somalia and is the main target of intensified US air strikes. (Al Jazeera)
• Somali federal government (Hassan Sheikh Mohamud) — Administration that extended its mandate by constitutional amendment in May 2026 and scheduled 2027 elections over objections of opposition parties that boycotted the amendment vote. (Al Jazeera)
• South Sudan's rival camps (Kiir and Machar) — President Salva Kiir's SSPDF and Riek Machar's SPLA-IO, in armed confrontation in Jonglei while Machar's trial passed 100 court days with him still detained, as of August 2026. (UNMISS)

Timeline

1. November 2, 2022 — Ethiopia's government and the TPLF agreed a permanent cessation of hostilities in Pretoria under AU mediation; Eritrea and allied regional forces took no part. (Al Jazeera)
2. March 2025 — White Army fighters attacked a South Sudanese army base in Nasir, Upper Nile; the government said over 250 soldiers died on Machar's orders and put him under house arrest. (Al Jazeera)
3. December 26, 2025 — Israel became the first state to recognise Somaliland; Somalia demanded a reversal and called the move an act of state aggression. (Al Jazeera)
4. June 3, 2026 — Government forces and opposition-aligned militias exchanged fire in Mogadishu ahead of protests against President Mohamud staying in office after his term expired. (Al Jazeera)
5. September 23, 2026 — A rebel alliance including the TPLF attacked Ethiopian government forces in Tigray, Amhara and Afar, reopening large-scale fighting in the north. (Al Jazeera)
6. October 1, 2026 — Ethiopia ordered its Asmara embassy closed and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats after overnight blasts in Addis Ababa; Eritrea severed all diplomatic ties. (Internazionale)
7. October 3, 2026 — Federal forces and Tigray Peace Force fighters entered Mekelle after the TPLF said it had temporarily moved out and would govern from elsewhere. (Al Jazeera)
8. October 15, 2026 — Somalia's election commission set parliamentary elections for 15 April 2027 and a presidential vote for 15 May 2027; former presidents Farmaajo and Sharif rejected the plan. (Al Jazeera)
9. October 23, 2026 — An official in Tigray's six-month caretaker administration urged rebels to disarm, hours after TPLF commander Fisseha Kidanu said Tigray was still at war. (Al Jazeera)

What to watch

• Ethiopia–Eritrea border. ACLED documented Ethiopian tanks moving toward the border and Eritrean troops withdrawing through Zalambessa in mid-October 2026; sustained movement there would signal the Tigray war turning interstate. Tracked in the Military Activity map layer on the live dashboard.
• Tigray and Afar front lines. TPLF commanders say they will fight on from outside Mekelle; new clashes around Aksum or Adigrat, or drone strikes in the city, would show whether the caretaker administration can hold. Tracked in the Armed Conflict Events map layer on the live dashboard.
• Mogadishu political violence. Elections are set for April–May 2027 without opposition agreement; renewed fighting between government and opposition-aligned forces, as in June 2026, would signal breakdown of the process. Tracked in the Country Instability panel on the live dashboard.
• Al-Shabaab pressure on Somali and AU forces. The group still holds south-central territory and seized a logistics hub in 2025; a rise in attacks would test an AU mission whose funding Al Jazeera described as uncertain. Tracked in the UCDP Conflict Events panel on the live dashboard.
• Jonglei displacement before the December vote. UNMISS reported over 420,000 people displaced in the first half of 2026, mainly in Jonglei; further displacement before South Sudan's scheduled December election would show electoral conditions eroding. Tracked in the UNHCR Displacement panel on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

None of the 4 covered countries in this tracker is in the Country Instability Index's monitored set, so only structural resilience readings are shown. Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Ethiopia (ET), Somalia (SO), South Sudan (SS), Eritrea (ER). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. SUZU Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Questions about the Horn of Africa

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: SUZU Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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